Alternate Future Financial Planning

These are uncertain times. Times when financial models have been exposed as wildly inaccurate and missing crucial elements that can tip the scales of financial stability from solvency to utter ruin. In trying to develop accurate financial models, we are crippled by what we do not know and what we haven't accounted for.

But what if we knew the future? What if we knew world financial trends before they occurred and could adjust our investments accordingly?

In comics, we frequently do. We think. The problem in comic books is not knowing the future. It's knowing too much about the future. In fact so much is known about the future and its possible iterations that investors will likely be more confused about what to do than if they only knew about the present.

Let's take one of the X-Men for example. Warren Worthington has been to the future before. He knows what will happen in the next 20-30 years. Maybe...

You see, Warren and his X-Men have been around the block enough times to know that the futures that they have been to may or may not occur. It's possible that in 20-30 years all the heroes may be dead or underground and the Red Skull may be running the United States. In which case Warren should now start investing in Nazi-themed furniture and vehicles. He should also invest in an admantium bodysuit to protect him from brainwashed colleagues so he could recoup his investments. However, its also possible that the future may be one where all continents except North America have been decimated (thank you very much Bishop). In this case Warren should spend money investing in bunkers and guns that can be easily used by sentient roach soldiers. So with this knowledge Warren should likely try to hedge his bets while avoiding the dozens of futures where he is incinerated by Sentinels.

So while its been established that comic book characters do know the future, it's clear that the future is highly variable. In one incarnation you're dead, in another you're a cyborg leading a rebellion with your daughter Ruby while watching Multiple Man engage in a quasi-pedophilic relationship with a girl who "knows things" (I don't want to think about the implications of that comment). There's no certainty, but at least you know some possible outcomes that you can plan and predict for.

But the level of uncertainly still exists. Bruce Wayne needs to think about whether he will be living in the future where Superman is a tool of the U.S. government or where Superman is farming in radioactive Kansas. These kinds of things really affect a portfolio.

What's Worse than the Depression?

Captain America says that he would rather be living through The Great Depression again than be frozen in a giant block of ice as Inuits worshiped his body as some sort of ice god. And you thought you had it bad.

Captain America: Reborn #3 by Ed Brubaker and Bryan Hitch (2009)

I think there are some noncomparability issues here, but Cap manages to pull it off as he always does. The obvious economic lesson is no matter how badly you're affected by dips in the financial climate, no matter how high the unemployment rate climbs, and no matter how poor the housing market gets, never ever ever under any circumstances get shot by a magic bullet that sends you spinning through some temporal loop for eternity. There are better ways to manage stress. I hear Yoga works.

The Questionable Logic of Scott Summers' Utopia

Recently the X-Men have come up against the Dark Avengers in the Utopia crossover. Norman Osborn flexed his military muscle and tried to replace the X-Men we all know and love with his hand-picked Dark X-Men. This villainous team includes Emma Frost and Namor the Sub-Mariner. As in all things Dark Reign, Norman desired to replace the unpredictable and uncontrollable X-Men with his evil puppets and further cement his control over all things Marvel. Cyclops takes issue with this and makes plans to protect not only the X-Men, but all of mutant kind.

The end result of all this (SPOILERS ENSUE) is that Norman gets betrayed by Emma and Namor, his Dark Avengers (and Dark X-Men) get smacked down and Scott Summers unveils his grand plan for the future of mutantkind. The plan he has been carefully developing for the duration of the crossover and patiently waiting to unleash.

And this plan is... from now on all mutants get to live in the San Francisco Bay on Alcatraz island which is propped up by the remains of what appears to be Asteroid M. Well done Scott. Mutant problems are clearly halted and everything is now candy and jelly beans of joy.

Let's stop and think about this for a second. The purpose of this Utopia was to remove the X-Men and all mutants from the territorial boundaries of the United States as well as the oppressive regime of Norman Osborn. I'm not sure that this Utopia fits the bill.

Granted the mutants are on an island that is not part of the US mainland, but this doesn't mean they're a separate nation. When I go to the New Jersey shore and swim out into the water, I'm not traveling internationally. In fact I haven't even left New Jersey. Those waters belong to the United States. Being 1.2 miles from the San Francisco shore doesn't seem like the most insurmountable of barriers and doesn't make you a separate nation. The X-Men are also living on Alcatraz Island which was formerly a federal penitentiary and then a national park. If you want to explicitly remove yourself from the influence of the United States government there are a few places you could choose that wouldn't be so connected to US influence. You could argue that raising Alcatraz island via Asteroid M makes Alcatraz no longer a US island but I'm not buying that either. I can't put my house on stilts and have gambling and prostitution inside because I'm "no longer on US soil." It doesn't work that way. I've tried. The stilts were too expensive and the police were on to me from the very beginning. But I digress.

Now the X-Men face the daunting task of converting a prison/military base into a mutant mecca that will house, feed, and educate the remaining hundreds of mutants from around the world. That means creating an entirely new infrastructure out of decommissioned military ordinance and space rock. How does Scott Summers intend to feed, clothe, and support the hundreds of individuals who will soon be arriving at his declared paradise? Even Scott himself admits he has no idea, despite the fact he had weeks (while watching Norman Osborn hold San Francisco under martial law) to plan it out. Granted he does have a lot of resources at his disposal in the form of his other X-Men. Iceman and Storm can provide water, Surge can provide electricity, Magma can provide heat, Maddison Jeffries can build machines to keep the island running, and Beast could act as tutor and supervisor (if he weren't going into space to be with Agent Brand). But where will the food come from? Every now and the Namor could lead a giant fish astray and beach it on the island, but who wants to eat gargantuan octopus every night? Of course Utopia is so close to the California mainland that Angel could fly over and pick up take-out every night and wouldn't be gone half an hour. Which only further points out how absurd it is to think of Utopia as a separate nation.

Perhaps I'm being a naysayer, but this doesn't not sound like the most well-thought and brilliant of plans. It's certainly not the kind of masterstroke you wait several weeks (in story) and 6 issues (in reality) to unveil. Moving from San Francisco to Alcatraz Island seems akin to setting up a tent in your parent's backyard and declaring independence from them.

You could argue that Scott only needed to move the X-Men slightly off US soil in order to allow Norman Osborn the ability to say that his Dark Avengers "banished" the X-Men when talking to the press. But if I was living in San Francisco and I could see Emma Frost in the shower from the Golden Gate bridge with any decent telescope, I wouldn't feel very isolated from the X-Men. I might certainly have some other feelings, but isolation would not be one of them.

In short, the new mutant Utopia is one with questionable legality and utility that benefits mutant kind in only the most superficial of ways. And maybe not even superficial benefits may be derived from it. If anyone can find value in this turn of events, I would truly love to know it.

Economics and Ethics

This is the name of a new blog, which aims to:

Showcase and discuss new work in ethics-and-economics by scholars around the world,

Discuss ways to include treatments of ethics in economics education,

Announce new projects and initiatives in ethics-and-economics, including calls for papers for books, journals, and conferences,

Highlight the often ignored or overlooked ethical aspects of economic arguments, whether in the world of academia or policy, and

Have a good time!

Among the founders is Mark D. White, professor of Political Science, Economics and Philosophy at the College of Staten Island. Professor White is also an ardent comic book fan, having written essays and served as an editor for books such as Batman and Philosphy: The Dark Knight of the Soul and Watchmen and Philosophy: A Rorschach Test.

All of this is worth checking out. Enjoy!!

Job Creation: Project Super-Runway

Amazing Spider Man #605 by Fred Van Lente and Luke Ross (2009)

Remember when we wrote about consulting and publicity for supervillains? We had mentioned just how important a villain's costume design is to his or her overall success. A villain is only as good as the evilness he is able to project upon the public. Within the context of the Batman universe, for instance, the successful villains include Joker, Two-Face, Scarecrow, Poison Ivy, etc. All have thematically fitting and terrifying costumes that unequivocally demonstrate that these are guys you do not want to mess with. However, guys like the Calendar Man...well, not so much.



It's not that the Calendar Man doesn't have potential as a villain. Here is someone who commits gruesome murders corresponding to particular dates and holidays. Think about that. It sounds pretty lame, but it actually is quite chilling. It spreads panic around every major holiday, thus making something that was once enjoyable no longer a cause for celebration. And though it might eliminate the element of surprise, it actually creates a certain anxiety and paranoia that lasts year-round.

Still, no one is at all afraid of the Calendar Man. Why? Well, look at him. Apart from the dates, I used to dress in a similar way when I used to wander around the woods in my neighborhood and pretend to be an explorer.

And analogous to how supervillains need to look the part, the more respectable superheroes are the ones that have the most superheroic costumes too. This actually ends up being a problem for many of them. Not everyone as Martha Kent to sew costumes or a technical-savvy butler like Alfred to help out with wardrobe. Up-and-coming superheroes, in particular, who are trying to establish themselves in a world dominated by the classic ones (see the Super Young Team from Final Crisis: Dance for an example) have to worry a lot about their appearances. They need to establish a sense of security, confidence and trust. Usually, they won't achieve this desired effect with a costume quickly hobbled together using household towels and bedsheets. What's more is that these heroes usually don't have the time to work on costumes since they're out fighting crime all day.

That is why ideas like the one portrayed in last week's issue of Amazing Spider-Man are completely reasonable if not good. Big name fashion designers would start developing lines exclusively for newer heroes. Private self-employed designers would start customizing costumes for specific superheroes with whom they have contracts. And, of course, television shows flaunting this very profession would become extremely popular in comic book universes.

Television shows like "Sewn Up," in particular, might actually have a positive effect on the community. First, it encourages competition among the superhero fashion industry, which in turn breeds more production of clever and effective superhero costumes. Second, these shows would serve not only to promote the designers and entertain viewers, but also to increase awareness about the heroes (I think the models of Project Runway actually have their own show now). If you randomly heard about someone named "Most Excellent Superbat," a native of Japan whose power is "being rich," you'd likely think the worst However, if you saw him on "Sewn Up," you might suddenly find him more legitimate and trustworthy.. Of course, whether this trust is warranted is another question.

It is not such a stretch to imagine a superhero hiring a fashion designer. After all, if supervillains can hire a real estate agent to sell them abandoned warehouses and carnivals for a fee, why would heroes not be able to take advantage of the fashion trade? The only problem I can foresee is that it won't be cheap. Batman can afford a revamp to his costume, but Spider-Man can't. Perhaps this would be a market better suited to villains like the Calendar Man, who either make their money throug illegitimate means or just turn back on deals and don't pay altogether. As Spider-Man himself put it...

Iron Man and Health Insurance Costs

Invincible Iron Man #18 by Matt Fraction and Salvador Larroca (2009)

It's true--many former employees who were fired from S.H.I.E.L.D. after Norman Osborn took over and renamed the organization H.A.M.M.E.R. are now without health care coverage. Recall that Pepper Potts was similarly complaining of her lack of insurance. The latest victim is Maria Hill.

As mentioned in another post, we already have COBRA coverage, which allows an employee who is eligible through certain qualifying events (including voluntary or involuntary termination of employment for reasons other than gross misconduct) to maintain continued coverage for a period of up to 18 months.

Alternatively, Hill could just purchase non-group health insurance. As far as I am aware, she does not have any preexisting condition that would disqualify her for coverage (and even if she did, I believe California does have a high-risk pool for medically needy individuals, and guaranteed issue for certain individuals and certain base benefits).

Why wouldn't Hill do either of these things? Well, the obvious reason is that both forms of coverage are just damn expensive. For example, here is a news item from the Commonwealth Fund I remember reading a while back, which reported the results of a Families USA study showing that family COBRA premiums present an extreme cost burden to the unemployed:

While unemployment insurance benefits vary according to state, the report found that the national average unemployment insurance benefit is $1,278, but the average COBRA premium for family coverage absorbs about 84 percent of those funds, or $1,069. [...] In nine states, the cost of COBRA premiums equaled or exceeded the unemployment insurance payment. In Alaska, the state with the largest disparity, the average COBRA premiums for family coverage consume 132 percent of unemployment income.

Ouch. This is why President Obama had proposed that the government subsidize 65% of individuals' COBRA costs for up to nine months. It sounds like a good thing for someone like Maria Hill, but remember that during a recession there is widespread unemployment and many people remain without jobs for longer than nine months.

If COBRA insurance is not affordable for many unemployed, then individual insurance is definitely not an option. There is no great national survey or database like the MEPS from which I can pluck an accurate average non-group premium as well as I could an average employer insurance premium. However looking at New York State's Insurance Department website, you can get an idea of just how expensive this coverage is. Take a look at this report of HMO rates for individual health plans by county as of September 2009. Even in counties that are not New York County, the premiums seem to be at least $800 per month, or $9,600 per year.

To be fair, New York State employer a pure community rating policy, which means that insurers are required to issue the same premium to all individuals regardless of age and health status, i.e. without medical underwriting. The effect is that the average cost of individual insurance in NYS goes way up. The average cost in California might be something closer to $3,000 or $4,000 a year. AHIP's survey of insurance affordability says even less, but this seems conservative to me.

One might wonder why Maria is fretting at all about not having health insurance. I mean, she does not have a preexisting condition and she's young, right? She can take a few months without insurance. Well, this might be the logic that some people use, but even unemployed, Hill has some pretty considerable occupational hazards. Her current activities in between jobs include smuggling sensitive data out of Tony Stark's secure warehouses, having her mind invaded and nearly wiped by The Controller, and getting into brutal fights with H.A.M.M.E.R. forces. A little insurance might do her some good.

Of course, Hill also differs from your average Joe in that she probably has lots of money saved up. You don't exactly work for S.H.I.E.L.D. for petty scraps of cash. I'm sure she is fully capable of dipping into her savings to sustain her until she finds new employment. That is, unless Osborn froze her assets or something like he did with Stark. In that case, she's screwed.

Indeed, having gaps in coverage is a big problem. There are arguments over it. Big national debates. Town hall meetings and protesters even.

Is there anything that the United States government can do to help out people like Hill and those who did not previously work for a big regulatory agency? Some claim that one way of reducing the temporarily uninsured in America is by allowing for cheap, high-deductible short-term coverage. Many states actually have such short-term insurance plans (New York doesn't though), where an individual can buy insurance for a period of three months to a year. It's watered down coverage, but it's coverage nonetheless. Others champion a more public solution. More subsidies for COBRA coverage, expansion of Medicaid (or other public program) eligibility to include these transitional individuals, etc.

Whatever the solution, it is clear that something must be done. With Osborn in charge, you never know what business will be pumpkin bombed next.

Foreign Hero of the Day: Captain Canuck

According to this article, Canada is the world's number 1 destination for foreign spies:

Led by the Chinese but including intelligence officers from at least 20 nations including allies [...], the infiltrators are stealing an estimated $20 billion to $30 billion annually worth of cutting-edge research in products and technologies, other scientific, business and military know-how and political secrets.

You know who this is a job for? Captain Canuck, that's who!



Captain Canuck, or Tom Evans, was a secret agent working for the Canadian International Security Agency (coincidentally in charge of counter-terrorism and intelligence), until he gained superpowers from some aliens. He then fought for justice in Canada in a fictional universe where it had become the most powerful country in the world and a haven for villainy.

Sure we all know Superman and we all care about Captain America, but not enough love is given to our boys fighting the good fight abroad. I say we take a minute to appreciate Captain Canuck's hard work rooting out terrorism and protecting all of Canada's national secrets. If only he were alive today to stop this threat...

Incidentally, I wonder what secrets Canada has to keep such that it's become such a nexus for foreign spies. Is it really, as the article claims, that it's just easy? Man, those spies are desperate. Even the comic had to invent a fictional Canada for it to make sense.